The mirage of high gas prices: addiction-driven demand?

The mirage of high gas prices: addiction-driven demand?

In Angelenos for Higher Gas Prices [http://www.dynamist.com/weblog/archives/002138.html], Virginia Postrel writes,

"At $3.50/gallon Mickey Kaus is channeling an observation I made when L.A. gas crossed the $2.00 mark: 'After a week in L.A., with a car for a few trips downtown, I'm starting to feel pretty friendly toward high gas prices. Having to pay more than $2 a gallon does wonders for the traffic.'"

Really? Has anybody noticed that much of a difference in traffic because of high gas prices? I'm skeptical of high gas prices as the solution to traffic problems. You know what they say, "Anything that goes up must eventually come back down." The oil shocks of the 70's made Americans give up their "gas guzzlers" for highly fuel-efficient compact Japanese cars in the 80's and 90's but they didn't exactly give up their cars altogether for public transportation. If high gas prices are indeed making angelenos drive less, it is an ephemreral illussion. As soon as the prices come back down (and they'd better or they'll have the President's head and that of the heads of the major oil companies on a platter), they'll hit the road again right away . Take my word for it.

On his blog http://blog.lib.umn.edu/levin031/transportationist - Value of time vs. Cost of gas, David M. Levinson comments on the above observation by Ms. Postrel,

"In Dynamist Blog: Angelenos for Higher Gas Prices Virginia Postrel notes the upside of higher gas prices ... less traffic. We can do a back-of-the-envelope calculation. So let's say her car gets 30 miles per gallon, and gas is $3 per gallon, she is paying $0.10/mile. If she were traveling at 50 miles per hour when gas was $2 per gallon ($0.067/mile) and 60 miles per hour now (at $3/gallon), she is traveling 20% faster (a one mile trip used to take 1 minute and 12 seconds but now only takes 1 minute). (I doubt average speeds have increased that much, but if she is noticing it, it is probably at least 10%)."

In other words, if I understand well, the speed of traffic is directly proportional to the cost of gas? The higher the price, the higher the speed (fewer cars on the road); the lower the price, the lower the speed (more cars on the road)? And the faster the speed, the sooner you get "there" and the more time you save? Academics love calculations right down to the last digit. I prefer the SOLID PERCEPTION of getting in a car and driving to my destination without frustrating delays to the misleading comfort of numbers and percentages.

High gas prices are not like a cholesterol-reducing drug for an obese person (if I may, again, use my recurring analogy). An obese person doesn't stop eating because food is more expensive anymore than a drug-addict stops using drugs because the price of cocaine has gone through the roof. Nothing can replace good diet and exercise (or rehab). Driving (or going out for no good purpose at all) can be a necessity, it can be a convenience, but it can also be an addiction. The job I was doing required me to drive all over town to meet clients. Sometimes, stuck in traffic in the middle of the day, I'd wonder, "what in the world are all these people doing out and about at this time of day? They are not commuters. The commuters have their cars parked at work." Academics and staticians interested in numbers might want to find out what are all those people doing on the road at ALL TIMES of day and night in L.A. One of the best solutions to the traffic problem may lie in the answers to that question.
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